Population projections
The ABS periodically releases population projections of the resident population of Australia based on different assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration. The latest projections can be found here.
The projections are not predictions or forecasts, but are simply illustrations of the growth and change in population which would occur if certain assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, internal migration and overseas migration were to prevail over the projection period. The assumptions incorporate recent trends which indicate increasing levels of fertility and net overseas migration for Australia.
The ABS produced 72 individual combinations of the various assumptions of fertility, mortality, etc. However for simplicity, three main projections are used - Series A, B and C. Series B largely reflects current trends in fertility, life expectancy at birth, net overseas migration and net interstate migration, whereas Series A and Series C are based on high and low assumptions for each of these variables respectively.
According to ABS projections, Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) at 30 June 2007 of 21.0 million people is projected to increase to between 30.9 and 42.5 million people by 2056, and to between 33.7 and 62.2 million people by 2101. Series A projects the highest growth, while Series C projects the lowest growth.
For more detailed information please see Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101.
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And this includes our NOM at 66% temporary visa holders....mad as *******. The ponzi student scheme of counting them in our official population growth percentage if they had been here longer than 12 months is unwinding as 20% less come and those that are here, return home. Anyone also includde our peaking emigration and the signs it is trending up? What about our death rates that double in the next 25 years? We will peak at approx 28 million and then start our decline. Also how does an ageing population feel about immigration?
Population growth should depend on natural births and the number of children people want. It should adjust according to food and housing availability, living standards, birth control availability, choices about work and values. However, these "projections" are not about natural births, but about government policy. They largely determine our rate of population growth through immigration levels. It's out of our hands. These "projection" are really targets set by our Government in consultation with economists and big businesses.
Thanks for the comment. The ABS population projections are not targets set by government, or predictions or forecasts; they are simply how the numbers would look if current rates of growth and change in population continued. In other words, they are just worked out mathematically. Three different series are provided, to show three different possibly outcomes based on current trends. To read more on how these numbers are arrived at click here
Imogen - "they are simply how the numbers would look if current rates of growth and change in population continued..". As such they are targets, deliberate outcomes of our government's growth and immigration policies. Our population growth is politically decided, and not due to natural births and having bigger families due to prosperity, space and good fortune. It's all about economic growth, despite the real drop in per person material well-being and wealth. Big corporations and strong lobby groups are the reason for manipulating our population growth. Of course, you apply mathematics to our present growth rate to make the "predictions", but it's extrapolating from the present-day growth-figures designed by our State and Federal governments. Our immigration rate is the driver of our population growth and fertility levels.
The ABS doesn't set govt population/migration policy so I'm not sure whether this is the right forum to discuss thaty
btw, when is the next series going to be released?
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